ABSTRACT
Different environmental–economic models tell different stories about what to expect, with or without policy intervention. For instance, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis assumes that the transition of industrialized countries to service economies will reduce environmental impact after an initial increase. This assumption seems to hold, if at all, for selected environmental pollutants only. The limits-to-growth model presents scenarios of tackling population growth and overuse of natural resources and environmental sinks. It predicts economic disaster for business as usual, using, however, a rather thin database. Models of optimal behaviour do not fare better. Assumptions of perfect markets and corresponding rational behavior are more and more challenged, for instance, by the recent winner of the Nobel Prize in economics. Trends of environmentally adjusted indicators of the greened national accounts might provide better answers, at least for the short term. In the long term, the question is whether innovative technology can make economic growth more sustainable. The hardly satisfactory answer is: possibly.
