ABSTRACT
The chapter examines the Belt and Road Initiative’s impacts region-by-region. Central Asia is perceived as a transit zone from Asia to Europe, but it is the region’s natural resources, particularly energy, which are likely to be of the greatest importance, alongside China’s ability to maintain smooth relations with Russia. Boosting cooperation is a priority in Southeast Asia, where trade and investment ties are increasing, but the effectiveness of China’s charm offensive has been reduced by perceptions of assertiveness in the South China Sea and accusations of debt-trap diplomacy. Similar issues exist in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, where uncertainties surrounding Chinese engagement with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and other nations cause friction, not least with India. Obtaining energy supplies is the priority in the Middle East, but political uncertainties and geographical distance limit China’s ability to exert influence. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), despite somewhat exaggerated perceptions that it is an entry point to Western Europe, is less significant for the progress of the Belt and Road than other regions closer to China’s borders. In terms of the complex eclecticism conceptual toolkit, material and ideational factors are stronger in the three regions in China’s neighbourhood, as are interdependence and institutions; these factors are weakest amid the complexities of the Middle East, in which China struggles to apply much geopolitical or geo-economic leverage in the face of regional rivalries and US influence.
