ABSTRACT
If a new nuclear-armed state were to emerge in Northeast Asia, it would most likely be the Republic of Korea (ROK). For most of the 1970s, ROK president Park Chung-hee oversaw a secret nuclear-weapons programme. Although North Korea has blatantly violated the agreement, forgoing enrichment and reprocessing remains the official policy of the ROK government. The ROK also has robust missile and aerospace programmes, and expertise in advanced solid-fuel technologies. The nation's conventional military capabilities include short-range ballistic and cruise missiles that are inherently capable of carrying nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear tests and robust missile programme underscore its repeated threats to turn Seoul into a 'sea of fire'. The nuclear imbalance between North and South Korea is not relevant unless one doubts the credibility of US extended deterrence. Assessments vary on how close South Korea came to producing a nuclear weapon. South Korea's robust nuclear-energy programme and industrial strength give it clear nuclear latency.
