ABSTRACT
Prediction, viewed as the forecasting of future outcomes, can be modelled in various ways. A probabilistic prediction involves a probability distribution across possible outcomes. An accessibility prediction reflects the ease with which outcomes will be processed, based on the varying salience of different items of knowledge as a result of recent events. A specified outcome prediction is stated as a set of particular outcomes which are expected to occur. What constitutes a violation of a prediction will depend on which formulation of prediction is used. Predictions can vary not only in whether they are made by conscious reasoning but also in whether the predicting agent is aware of the prediction. Jokes depend upon the audience becoming aware of information as a result of inference after the punch line. This post-text processing has to lie within certain constraints of time and effort, as yet undetermined, for the joke to be effective.
