ABSTRACT

Generally, one can support an intelligence argument by using three different methods. An analyst can use them separately or in combination according to their purpose and audience. Some intelligence consumers want statistical evidence in their reports. One must understand statistical information can be presented in various legitimate ways and yet suggest dramatically different conclusions. Factual evidence is the basis for expert opinions, however, expert opinions differ from fact in that they are interpretations of fact from the perspective of an expert. Intelligence analysts often must use subject matter experts to interpret data because they themselves do not have the best background information or subject matter knowledge to properly weigh the facts presented. Foundational or supporting evidence refers to the information the analysts are using upon which to base their findings. Factual evidence is the basis for expert opinions; however, expert opinions differ from fact in that they are interpretations of fact.