ABSTRACT
This chapter describes a forecast to the year 2000. It describes a critical analysis of developments in this field, based on the understanding of company experience in the two countries. Naughton acknowledges that forecasts of the impact of artificial intelligence are speculative because of the lack of established products and conventional markets. Developing and controlling computer-based training (CBT) is a far easier task for artificial intelligence than controlling a United States strategic defence system, but the signs to date are not hopeful. The five-component model is to be exploited commercially for CBT by Advanced Technology Training Associates, a British company. Each of these components can be expressed in production rules, according to O'Shea, whose purpose in developing the model is to constrain designers to one of a number of models, thus keeping down CBT development costs.
