ABSTRACT
During the Cold War as before it, local and regional conflicts were often instigated or at least encouraged and materially supported by rival great powers. Great powers normally relied on intimidation rather than combat, but only because a willingness to use force was assumed. The Soviet Union was still an intact totalitarian dictatorship when it engaged in a classic great power venture in Afghanistan, only to find that even its tightly regimented society would not tolerate the resulting casualties. Leadership is certainly important, but it cannot be so for great powers, because the routine functioning of a great power cannot depend on the fortuitous presence of exceptional leaders. In the absence of functioning great powers, the entire character of world politics has changed. Under the old machtpolitik rules, for example, the United States should have been eager to extend its military influence to the Russian border by granting full NATO membership to Poland and other former Warsaw Pact countries.
