ABSTRACT
The connection between conjecture and action is at its clearest when an agent pins a decision on an estimate of the probability of some facet of the future. In the world of business almost all conjectures are ad hoc and are produced only on request. It is a fundamental characteristic of such an ad hoc forecast that the area of doubt is clearly demarcated. A forecast that a contemplated action will have this or that consequence is an argument for or against its adoption. If a long-range speculation is to be of seminal value, it must amount to something more than an anticipation of the future value of specified variables, with a simple extension of the horizon beyond the range relevant to a present decision-problem. An economist is naturally led into speculations about the effects of leisure time. Of all the facilities presupposed by a leisure culture, only one has appeared in France—radio and television.
