ABSTRACT
A proposition that would find favor with most of us is that the business of life is concerned with attempts to do more or less the right thing at more or less the right time. It follows that a great deal of our thinking, in the sense of deliberating, about our condition is bound up with the problem of making decisions in the face of uncertainty. A traditional view of science in general, on the other hand, is that it searches for conclusions that are to be taken to be true, that the conclusions should represent an absolute certainty. If one of its conclusions fails, then the failure is put down to ignorance, or poor methodology, or primitive techniques – the truth is still thought to be out there somewhere. In chapter 2, some of the difficulties that can arise in trying to sustain this position were discussed. Probability theory provides us with a means of reaching answers and conclusions when, as is the case in anything but the most trivial of circumstances, the evidence is incomplete or, indeed, can never be complete. Put simply, what is the best bet, what are the odds on our winning, and how confident can we be that we are right? The derivation of theories and systems that may be applied to assist us in answering these questions continues to present intellectual challenges.
