ABSTRACT
Modelling empowers us to ‘look further down alternative roads’ and make an informed choice from the options available to us. Unlike Robert Frost's traveller, who could see only as far as the next bend and who chose his path ‘because it was grassy and wanted wear’, we can use models in various ways to evaluate our options and consider the implications. For instance, we could use a map to see where the two roads might lead us. A map is completely descriptive and does not help us to divine the future, but it does help us orient ourselves in unfamiliar situations and make an informed choice from the options available. Predicting what might happen in the future if we make alternative choices today is more difficult, but still worthwhile. Most people plan for their old age: villagers in India may plan their family and arrange their children's marriages to try to improve their future prospects, while the urban middle class, in Mumbai and New York alike, seek investment advice to ascertain the financial viability of their retirement plans. Investment advisers cannot be sure what will happen in the future, but they can devise a scenario based on ‘business as usual’ assumptions to indicate if our current plan is likely to provide for our future needs. Such a simplistic outline of a possible future may be an important step in appreciating whether there is a problem and whether new initiatives are needed, both in our personal lives, and with broader social and natural resource issues.
