ABSTRACT

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OFDEALINGWITHTHESITUATION%MERYAND4RISTHAVEARGUEDTHATPLAYERSEXPOSED TOANEWTURBULENTENVIRONMENTCOPEWITHTHISBYFALLINGBACKONORDEVELOPING ANDINSTITUTIONALIZINGSETSOFSHAREDVALUESTHATREINTRODUCECOHERENTBEHAVIOURIN ANOTHERWISEUNMANAGEABLEBUSINESSENVIRONMENT4HEFOURSCENARIOSEMERGING FROMTHISPROJECTCANBEINTERPRETEDASBEINGDRIVENBYFOURDIFFERENTVALUESSETS 4HESCENARIOSTELLTHESTORIESOFHOWTHESEAREMOBILIZEDTOTRANSFORMTHETURBULENT ENVIRONMENTINTOMOREPLACIDCAUSALTEXTURESINWHICHRATIONALDECISIONPROCESSES CANADDRESSTHELONGER TERMNEEDSOFTHESECTOR 7HILESOMEVALUESETSSEEMTORESONATEMOREWITH)NDIANCULTURALASSUMPTIONS

THANOTHERSTHEPROJECTHASSHOWNTHATTHECOUNTRYISSOMEDISTANCEAWAYFROMA CONDITIONOF@SHAREDVALUESINTHEAGRICULTURALINDUSTRYASAWHOLEASABASISFOR MOVINGFORWARD %VENSOTHEPROJECTEXPERIENCEILLUSTRATESTHEVALUEOFUSINGSCENARIOPLANNING

INORDERTOGAINSOMECONTROLOVERNEWANDPROBLEMATICINTERRELATIONSHIPSIN TURBULENTCONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTS

!SWEOVERVIEWEDIN#HAPTERINTHEIRSEMINALPAPER%MERYAND4RIST PROPOSEFOURTYPESOFENVIRONMENTTHATANOPENSYSTEMSUCHAS)NDIANAGRICULTURE CANBEEXPOSEDTODEPENDINGUPONTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHEVARIABLESDElNINGIT &OREACHENVIRONMENTTHEYINDICATE@WINNINGRESPONSESTHATALLOWPLAYERSTO COPEWITHITSSPECIlCPROBLEMS4HEFOLLOWINGISABRIEFSUMMARYGROUPEDFROM PLACIDTOTURBULENT

0LACIDRANDOMIZEDENVIRONMENT s PERFECTMARKETMODEL s WINNINGSTRATEGY→THESIMPLETACTICOFDOINGYOURBESTONAPURELYLOCAL BASISLOCALOPTIMIZATIONINTHE@HEREANDNOW

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s THEWAYINWHICHPLAYERSESCAPETHEPARALYSINGINmUENCEOFTURBULENCEIS BYADOPTINGACODEOFBEHAVIOURTOWHICHASIGNIlCANTNUMBEROFPLAYERS CAN SUBSCRIBE EMERGENCE OF VALUES COMMANDMENTS CODES COPING MECHANISMS THATHAVEOVERRIDINGSIGNIlCANCEFORALLPLAYERS

s WINNING STRATEGY→ CREATIONOF INSTITUTIONSWHOSE ROLE IS TODEFINE ANDPROTECTGENERALLYAPPLICABLEBEHAVIOURALCODESDESIGNEDTODIVERT TURBULENCE INTER ORGANIZATIONALMATRICES COLLABORATIVE ENDEAVOURS SANCTIONINGBODIES

)NTHEIRSEMINALPAPER%MERYAND4RIST PROVIDEFORTHElRSTTIMEAPRECISE DElNITIONOFTURBULENCEINTERMSOFTHECAUSALTEXTURECREATINGIT4HEYILLUSTRATE THISBYREFERRINGTOACASEEXAMPLERELATEDTOAGRICULTURALREFORMINTHE5+DURING THES4HEFOLLOWINGISONEOFTHEPOSSIBLEINTERPRETATIONSOFTHATCASE)NTHE CASEDISCUSSIONITBECOMESCLEARTHAT%MERYAND4RISTSEETURBULENCEASANOBJECTIVE REALITYOFTHEGIVENENVIRONMENTANDCONSIDERATIONOFANYSTRATEGICRESPONSESTARTS FROMTHATPOINT4HISLEADSTO@ACTIVEnADAPTIVECOPINGSTRATEGIES%MERY BASEDONACTIONLEVERSWITHINTHEIMMEDIATECONTROLOFTHEACTORSLEADINGTO SHARINGOFVALUESANDBEHAVIOURALINSTITUTIONALIZATIONOFMUTUALCOLLABORATIONAS DISCUSSEDABOVE4HESEAIMATREDUCINGTURBULENCENOTINTHEGIVENCONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENTBUTONTHEPLAYINGlELDBYCREATINGONEORMOREACTIONABLE@ISLANDS OFRELATIVEPLACIDITYWHERETHEPLAYERSORSTAKEHOLDERS CANANTICIPATEANDGAIN SUFlCIENTCONTROLTOMOVEFORWARDONALONGER TERMBASIS0OLICYTHENREVERTS TO @PLANNING A CAMPAIGN THE APPROACH APPROPRIATE FOR @DISTURBEDnREACTIVE ENVIRONMENTS)NTHEBATTLEFORSURVIVALTHESECODE BASEDORGANIZATIONSWINOUT OVEROTHERSWHICHTRYANDFAIL TOlNDAVIABLESTRATEGYONTHEIROWNINTHE TURBULENCETHEYlNDTHEMSELVESIN -C#ANNAND3ELSKY HAVEARGUEDTHATTURBULENCECANBEEXPERIENCED

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IN PRINCIPLE OF REDUCING TURBULENCE BY DEVELOPING AMORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDINGOFTHE,-C#ANNAND3ELSKYS VIEWPROVIDESSPACEINTHE TURBULENTWORLDFORSCENARIOPLANNINGPROVIDINGDECISION MAKERSWITHASENSE MAKINGTOOLINORDERTOGAINUNDERSTANDINGOFWHATSEEMSCHAOTICATlRSTSIGHT 3CENARIOPLANNERSCONSIDERITPRODUCTIVETOINVESTINANALYSINGTHEENVIRONMENTIN ORDERTOBRINGOUTITSMORESTABLE,RELATIONSHIPSSEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUME 4HROUGHENHANCEDSYSTEMICUNDERSTANDINGTHECOMPLEXITYANDUNWIELDINESSOF THEPERCEIVED,RELATIONSHIPSAREMINIMIZEDUNCERTAINTYISREDUCEDANDASA CONSEQUENCEPERCEIVEDTURBULENCEDIMINISHESANDAMOREPLACIDMODELSUCH AS@DISTURBEDREACTIVEISEXPERIENCED4HISREQUIRESTHATTHEWHOLE,SCENEIS CONSIDEREDINVOLVINGALLDISCIPLINARYPERSPECTIVESONTHESITUATION4HEROLEOF

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Origins of the project

&ORMANYYEARSTHE7ORLD"ANKHASBEENINVOLVEDWITHTHEGOVERNMENTOF)NDIA INFUNDINGAGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENT2ECENTLYTHISHASTAKENTHEFORMOFTHE .ATIONAL!GRICULTURAL4ECHNOLOGY0ROJECTTHEMOSTCURRENTINASERIESOFPROJECTS THATHAVEBEENSPECTACULARLYSUCCESSFULINMAKING)NDIAESSENTIALLYSELF SUFlCIENT INFEEDINGITSPOPULATION4OCONSOLIDATETHEGAINSOFTHISPROGRAMMEANDTO FACECONTEMPORARYCHALLENGESFACINGTHEINDUSTRYTHEGOVERNMENTOF)NDIAAND THE7ORLD"ANKAGREEDTOUNDERTAKEANEW.ATIONAL!GRICULTURAL)NNOVATION 0ROJECT.!)0 4HESCENARIOPROJECTDISCUSSEDHEREISPARTOFTHEDEVELOPMENT ANDNEGOTIATIONOFTHE.!)0 4HEAGRICULTURALSECTORIN)NDIAISSUBJECTTODRAMATICCHANGE3OMEFACTORS

SUCHASPOPULATIONGROWTHIMPROVEDINCOMESANDSHIFTINGDIETARYPATTERNSARE DIVERSIFYINGDEMANDPATTERNS!GRICULTUREISALSOINCREASINGLYDEMANDANDMARKET DRIVEN!TTHESAMETIMETHENATIONALRESOURCEBASEUNDERPINNINGAGRICULTUREIN )NDIAISUNDERSERIOUSTHREAT7HILEITISCLEARTHATAGRICULTURALSYSTEMSNEEDTO REFORMITISLESSEVIDENTWHATVIABILITYENTAILSNOWANDINTHEFUTURE 4HEENVIRONMENTCANBEARGUEDTOBETURBULENTASMANYNEWANDSTRONGER

INTERRELATIONSHIPSINTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTAREBECOMINGSALIENTTOTHEPLAYERS %XAMPLESOFTRENDSBEINGDRIVENBYTHESENEWRELATIONSHIPSINCLUDEINCREASED ANDUNEXPECTEDNEWDEMANDSONLIMITEDRESOURCESEGWATERAGRICULTURALLAND OTHER NEWEXPOSURETOGLOBALFORCESAS)NDIAOPENSITSBORDERSTOINTERNATIONAL COMPETITIONANDTHEINCREASINGEXPOSUREOFTRADITIONALREGULATORYSTRUCTURESTO NEWLYEMERGINGPOWERFULPLAYERSSEEBELOW 4HESEFORCESARELINKEDINCOMPLEX WAYSTHATAREONLYPARTLYUNDERSTOOD&OREXAMPLEINCREASEDEXPOSURETOGLOBAL FORCESISAFFECTINGTHETRADITIONALREGULATORYSTRUCTUREANDSTIMULATINGNEWPLAYERS TODEVELOPFUNDAMENTALLYNEWREGULATORYSTRUCTURES 3UCHRELATIONSHIPSCANBEUSEFULLY STUDIEDUSINGSCENARIOPLANNING4HIS

APPROACHWASUSEDINORDERTOADDRESSMANYOFTHEUNCERTAINTIESANDTOINFORM THENEGOTIATIONSGOINGONINPARALLELWITHREGARDTOTHE.!)04HEPROJECTALSO AIMEDATENABLINGPARTICIPANTSTODEVELOPASHAREDPERSPECTIVE

Participants and their interests

4HEMAINSTAKEHOLDERSINTHEPROJECTWERETHEGOVERNMENTOF)NDIAINCLUDING THE-INISTRYOF!GRICULTUREANDTHE)NDIA#OUNCILFOR!GRICULTURAL2ESEARCH ANDTHE7ORLD"ANK(OWEVERFROMTHEOUTSETITWASDECIDEDTHATTHISPROJECT NEEDEDTOBECOMEA@STRATEGICCONVERSATIONVANDER(EIJDEN AMONGA WIDERANGEOFINTERESTSINRURALANDAGRICULTURALISSUES)TWASAGREEDTHATINORDER TOBESUCCESSFULTHEPROJECTREQUIREDTHEPARTICIPATIONOFHIGH LEVELOFlCIALSFARM LEADERSSENIORLEADERSFROMTHEPRIVATEANDPUBLICSECTORSNON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONLEADERSDONORREPRESENTATIVESEXPERTSONAGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENT ANDANUMBEROF@GENERALISTS4HESCENARIO BUILDINGPROCESSWASMANAGEDJOINTLY

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4HECOMPLETEPROCESSCOVEREDANELAPSEDTIMEOFMONTHSFROM3EPTEMBER UNTIL*ULY)TWASDESIGNEDASANITERATIVEAPPROACHINWHICHSENSE MAKINGOFCOLLECTEDDATAALTERNATEDWITHIN DEPTHRESEARCHOFTHEARISINGISSUES )NBROADTERMSTHEPROJECTCOMPRISEDTHEFOLLOWINGSTEPS

s INTERVIEWINGACROSSAWIDERANGEOFSTAKEHOLDERS s lRSTSCENARIO BUILDINGITERATION s SCENARIOPRESENTATIONSTOSTAKEHOLDERSFORCRITIQUEANDLEARNING s FORMULATIONOFKEYRESEARCHQUESTION s RESEARCHWITHEXPERTS s SECONDSCENARIO BUILDINGITERATION

)MPLICATIONSWERESTARTINGTOCOMEOUTLOUDANDCLEARFROMTHESECONDITERATION INFORMINGTHESHAPINGOFTHE.!)0PROJECT7HENTHENEGOTIATIONSCONCERNING .!)0WEREBROUGHTTOASUCCESSFULCONCLUSIONTHEFORMALPARTOFTHESCENARIO PROJECTWASALSOBROUGHTTOANEND3INCETHENSEVERALSTAKEHOLDERSHAVEUSED THERESULTSTOENGAGEAWIDERAUDIENCEINCONSULTATIONSINORDERTOEXPLOREFUTURE POLICYISSUES 4HEEVENTTHATSHAPEDTHEOUTCOMEMOSTWASTHElRSTSCENARIOWORKSHOPIN

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