ABSTRACT
Scientific research is grounded in data-gathering and analysis. Data about the future (see Box 1.1), however, cannot be gathered or analysed in classical ways. Nevertheless, society demands systematic assessments of the future, and in scholarly circles calls are made for serious study of the future (e.g. Sardar, 1999a; Slaughter, 2002; van der Duin et al, 2004; see also the peer-reviewed journals Futures, Foresight and Technological Forecasting & Social Change). H. G. Wells's article ‘The discovery of the future’ in Nature (1902), in which he explored the possibilities of the study of the future as a scientific activity, can be considered an early point of reference. Nowadays, different national and international, public and private organizations around the world have the assignment or ambition to explore the long term. Numerous professionals employed by these organizations produce statements about prospective conditions, actions that have not yet occurred, events that have not yet happened, processes that are not yet manifest, states not yet in existence and policies not yet in force. The intriguing question is: how do these experts produce such assessments of the future?
