ABSTRACT
In the previous chapter, we addressed foresight in action through an analysis of observations about the scenario matrix. By analysing a multiplicity of functional meanings, we aimed to contribute to the understanding of how policy-oriented foresight is actually carried out. In this chapter, we describe and analyse observations about the approaches that futurists use in the face of uncertainty. It is generally agreed among futurists that foresight involves dealing with ‘prospective uncertainty’, which we define as instances in which futurists have doubts about the future, partly or fully, because (scientific) knowledge is perceived as limited (compare van Asselt, 2005, and van Asselt et al, 2007a). Fontela's complaint reveals that prospective uncertainty is inherent to foresight (Fontela, 2000, pp10–14):
We know little about the past and present in a multidisciplinary way. We know that sociological and political factors influence economic factors and vice versa. We know that technological developments lead to innovation that modify productive structures; we know, indeed, that the facts that determine change are many and that our scientific knowledge of the processes of change is clearly insufficient… to explore [the future].
