ABSTRACT

In the emergence of new technological areas and industries, ambiguity of technologies and markets are large, posing challenges for the building of innovation systems (ISs) conducive both to the necessary experimentation and variety creation, and to the likewise crucial ability to select and de-select technologies. One particular problem is that one can seldom beforehand predict which technologies will become the most pervasive, but instead, taking an evolutionary approach to industrial dynamics, it is acknowledged that continuous experimentation is necessary, resulting in a multiplicity of competing or complementary solutions to the societal and economic needs at hand. Technological diversity creation and the competition it entails are generally beneficial, both in early phases of development where uncertainty is large and in later phases where market acceptance is key. Indeed, such experimentation and diversity, the literature argues, is often a prerequisite for innovation to come about and thus something that is encouraged in the modern knowledge society. Given a multitude of alternative technologies in a well-functioning IS, selection and retention mechanisms kick in, assuring some alternatives to take the upper hand at the expense of others.