ABSTRACT
Evaluating the economic loss of civil infrastructure subjected to hazards can be significant for life-cycle risk assessment. In the past, the expected value of loss has been widely investigated during risk assessment and employed as a standard decision-making criterion. However, the inherent uncertainties may be neglected when focusing on the mean value. Hence, other statistical moments, especially the higher-order moments, and the probability density function of the long-term loss should be considered. In this paper, a probabilistic analysis framework is proposed for risk quantification to compute the probability density function of the long-term loss using statistical moments. By using the first-four statistical moments of the long-term loss, the maximum entropy method can construct the probability density function of the long-term loss effectively and accurately. The proposed method can enhance the computation efficiency during risk assessment and benefit the decision-making process.
