ABSTRACT
Experts agree that the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires disruptive change, while countries scoring highest on the SDGs are characterized by stability and path dependency. We seek to explain this paradox by developing a framework for analyzing the role of politics and path dependency in shaping sustainability outcomes. Its basic assumption is that the global SDGs need to be compatible with dominant political values embedded in the institutional context and supported by material conditions (technology and wealth) for a country to attain a high score on the goals without a disruptive change. We argue that the SDGs contain entrenched ideas of “destructive creation”, inclusive development and fair distribution of opportunities and income. The two last ideas are in line with the Social Democratic values of solidarity and universalism. Our case study highlights how political actors in Norway have made references to institutionally embedded Social Democratic values to ensure path-dependent development in a petroleum economy. Our contribution to scholarship on sustainability transition is to explain why stability can coincide with high score on the SDGs. Our framework also goes beyond policy outputs by considering sustainability outcomes and their implications for transition pathways, that is, whether they are path-dependent, lock-in, or disruptive.
