ABSTRACT
This study aims to create a new model for financial distress prediction in response to public companies’ deteroriation of performance due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The research method used was logistic regression to examine the relation between financial distress and independent variables such as financial ratios and stock market ratios. The result shows that the ratios of leverage, solvency, and profitability affected more significantly than other ratios. Since financial distress does not occur suddenly, this study divided its model into 2, namely 1 year before the distress (M1) and 2 years before the distress (M2). The results indicate that M1 had a better result, with 91,63% classification accuracy (by default cut-off point = 0.5). We also re-estimated other accounting-based models and compare our model to them. The results demonstrate that our model performed better than other models (+12,24% difference); thereby our model appeared to be the most suitable accounting-based model for financial distress prediction for the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This is because author's model is based on a combination of accounting variables and capital market variables.
