ABSTRACT
In the planning of low-carbon cities, transport is expected to play a key role in tackling climate change issues as it is one of the few sectors in which carbon emissions continue to rise. Low Carbon Transport (LCT) plans may provide a pathway towards Low Carbon Development (LCD) by reducing emissions from transport while simultaneously maintaining or improving the accessibility of people to opportunities such as jobs and services, thereby promoting sustainable transport in developing countries. Nonetheless, while dealing with plans and policies related to sustainable transport, it is important to look at the future as these plans and policies may require long lead times to be effective; impacts often take time to become apparent and may even bring unexpected results. This chapter presents a hybrid tool that integrates scenario analysis with a GIS-based planning-support tool to assess the future impacts and potential of LCT plans with respect to two indicators: improving accessibility and lowering CO2 emissions. Three LCT plans were evaluated in the data-poor context of Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC), Nepal, under two scenarios: high and low population growth. The results show that a shift from private to public transport modes is necessary in all the alternative scenarios for LCT plans if LCD in transport for KMC is to be realized. Ultimately, however, choice of mode depends on people’s preferences, attitudes and behaviour.
