ABSTRACT
The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical framework for estimation the expected heat loss due to the implementation of de-icing measures for vessels operating in the Arctic offshore. Sea-spray icing on vessels operating in Arctic waters imposes financial and safety risks, such as loss of vessel stability, safety risks for vessel crew, as well as delays in maintenance and operations of offshore units. In Arctic offshore logistics, efficient planning of platform supply vessel operations should be performed while accounting for the risk of spray icing associated with selected voyages. Although Arctic vessels are equipped with a range of anti-icing and de-icing options, an optimum design and estimation of energy consumption for winterisation purposes remains a challenging task especially due to the uncertainties associated with the temporal-spatial variation of meteorological and oceanographic parameters contributing to ice accretion. However, long-term forecasts of such parameters are hardly available during logistics planning phase. Thus, this study uses 3-hourly reanalysis hindcast data (Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km data: NORA10) for estimation of icing rate and develops a probabilistic framework for estimation of expected heat loss, due to implementation of winterisation measures, over sea voyages for long-term logistics plans. Expected icing rate and winterisation-related heat loss can be used as safety and financial risk indicators in Arctic offshore logistics operations and their involved long-term decision-making processes. The framework is illustrated by a case study in the Arctic-Norwegian waters.
