ABSTRACT
Road tunnel management is oriented in protecting tunnels from fire accidents that can evolve to disasters causing several human losses and extended infrastructure destruction. In order to enhance tunnels’ safety, analysts usually employ Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) models for predicting human losses. However, human behaviour includes significant uncertainties during the evacuation process. This paper aims to address this problem proposing a stochastic-based evacuation model. Employing Monte Carlo approach, a set of simulations is conducted in which users’ behaviour modelling is based on data from the existing theoretical framework, post-accident reports, conducted experiments and legislation requirements. Applying the model to a typical Greek tunnel, the outcome highlights a significant proportion of scenarios that exceed losses estimated by traditional approaches revealing also potential fallacies. The model’s contribution rests on the provision of a stochastic-based simulation that is closer to describing reality than a simple deterministic model, as far as users’ evacuation is concerned.
