ABSTRACT
Complex adaptive systems pose challenges for risk management, e.g. due to the difficulty to forecast evolutions in the system and to predict system responses to different interventions. Due to the complex cause-and-effect relationships, straightforward actions would often fail to produce the desired effects in the system. A more adaptive approach is required. This paper focuses on the challenges of adaptive risk management and especially adaptive risk treatment. Key features of complex adaptive systems are described, as well as the consequences of these features for risk management. Different types of possible interventions are introduced, including simple actions, adaptive policies and portfolios of experiments. Advantages and challenges of adaptive risk treatment strategies are discussed and some examples are provided. It is argued that the scientific community should promote the use of adaptive approaches compared to the older less dynamic approaches which are not well-adapted for complex systems.
