ABSTRACT
A military operational plan helps prepare the armed forces for future security challenges. Planning necessitates making assumptions about the future, and these assumptions constitute operational risks; possible negative operational effects in case the assumptions fail. Hence, a thorough risk analysis should be part of the operational planning process. In this paper, we propose a method for analysing operational risks and vulnerabilities in support of operational planning. In particular, we focus on risks related to assumptions about availability of critical capabilities. Using a bow-tie model where the undesired event is a capability gap, we explore likely causes and consequences by combining gaps with identified vulnerabilities. The outcome of the analysis is an overview of operational risks. The method is applied on an example within a fictive planning scenario. While developed primarily for military planning, the method is also relevant for security risk analysis in the civilian domain.
