ABSTRACT
The paper deals with the quantification of probabilities for human failures in the radiotherapy domain. The probabilities are used as input for the development of a Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method specific for radiotherapy. Quantification is based on expert judgment, in view of the lack of relevant data. A Bayesian aggregation model is used to aggregate the judgments collected during elicitation sessions with domain experts. A qualitative scale is first used; then the judgments are interpreted as information on the order of magnitude of the error likelihood and aggregated under the Bayesian scheme. Besides for the specific domain of interest, this work is relevant for novel HRA applications outside typical domains, for which the need to incorporate expert judgment in traceable and defendable ways is key.
