ABSTRACT
270Vespa velutina nigrithorax, an Asian bee-hawking hornet, was unintentionally introduced in southwestern France before 2004 and is currently spreading widely across the country. By modeling the climatic suitability of the yellow-legged hornet at a global scale using various niche models, we estimated the potential invasion risk of this invasive species across the world, with a focus on Europe. We used eight different modeling techniques within an ensemble forecast framework to show that the invasion success in southwestern France could have been predicted using data from the native Asian range of the species. We further used data from both the native and invaded ranges (including a recently established population in Korea) to better predict the potential invasion range across all continents. Results are discussed in terms of the interest of ecological niche modeling for invasion biology, realized niche of the invasive wasp, potential threats to native entomofauna, and economic impacts of this new predator. Particular attention is paid to beekeeping activities that are nowadays already threatened by a wide panel of adversary factors. However, as far as we know, the true impact of the alien hornet on colony losses and on honey production has not yet been evaluated in France or in its area of origin. Regions at risk hold the highest densities of beehives in Europe, which could suffer from the potential predation of the putative invading hornet of both honey bees and wild pollinators. Furthermore, the impacts of V. velutina on pollinators must be quickly investigated, as they might well have more durable consequences than the already publicly known nuisance to apiculture.
