ABSTRACT
At the start of the twenty-first century the world is more urbanised than ever before and the rate of urbanisation continues to grow. On a global scale, about three billion people, or approximately 48 per cent of the world’s population live in urban areas and by the year 2030 this is set to rise to 61 per cent (United Nations (UN) 2004). It is estimated that in 2007 more than half of the world’s population will live in urban areas. This will be the first time that the world’s urban population has exceeded the rural population. The urban population reached one billion in 1960, two billion in 1985 and three billion in 2002. It is projected to rise to 4 billion in 2017 and 5 billion in 2030. During 2000–2030, the world’s urban population is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent, nearly double the rate expected for the total population of the world (almost 1 per cent per year). Given this expected rate of growth, the world’s urban population will double in 38 years or in about half the lifetime of a person. However, almost all the expected growth in urban populations will be in the less developed countries, averaging 2.3 per cent population growth per year. In contrast, the urban population of the developed countries is expected to increase from 0.9 billion in 2003 to one billion in 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 0.5 per cent per annum, in contrast to the 1.5 per cent recorded during the previous 50 years. This slowing of the urban population growth rate is hardly surprising given that 74 per cent of the population in developed countries already lived in urban regions in 2003. Nevertheless, this figure is forecast to increase to 82 per cent by 2030 (UN 2004).
