ABSTRACT
This chapter is divided into two main sections. First, the core threat perceptions of local states and elites in the South Caucasus and Central Asia are identified. Second, the most likely risks of military conflict in the overall region are analyzed. The chapter reveals the diversity of thinking about security policy between the eight countries concerned. It also highlights the deep divisions that fracture the South Caucasus as a region, specifically between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and that also create antagonisms in Central Asia especially around the Ferghana Valley and when rivalry surfaces between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. With these differences it is hardly surprising that regional efforts to coordinate defense and security policy, through mechanisms for multilateral cooperation, have made little progress to date. The chapter concludes by outlining a number of broad constraints and obstacles that have limited such defense and security cooperation, as well as limiting the broader cause of regionalism.
