How Painful is the Transition?

In the light of late-corner success stories in primarily East and Southeast Asia, there is a growing debate on the implication of these success stories for development theories (see e.g. Abramovitz, 1986; Amsden, 1989, 1993; Wade, 1990; World Bank, 1993). Relevant in this context is also the revived debate on whether there exist long cycles, or waves, in global economic development and to what extent the existence of such long waves affects conditions for ‘catching up’ by late-comers. This also leads the discussion on to what extent national economies have to go through ‘painful transition stages’ to successively new ‘techno-economic systems or paradigms’ (see e.g. Freeman, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1993; Freeman and Perez, 1988; Perez and Soete, 1988).