ABSTRACT

Risk and uncertainty are frequently used concepts in academic and policy debates related to climate mitigation. However, unlike in other fields of research, there are no clear conventions for the use of these terms. While we agree with the consensus that the exact specification of any risk or uncertainty is context specific, it is important to have a clearly established framework to discuss risks and uncertainties in an inter- and transdisciplinary project in order to create meaningful and comparable (at least quantitatively) results. This chapter sets out such a basic conceptual framework, distinguishing two fundamental categories of risks associated with climate mitigation policies. These are, first, where risks are associated with the implementation of such policies in the sense of barriers, and second, where risks are considered to be the potential negative consequences of policies as they are implemented. We consider uncertainty as distinct from risks as a higher and vaguer level of incomplete knowledge, where no clear idea of the quality of future states of the world can be made. Such uncertainties may become implementation risks in the sense of cognitive barriers amongst decision makers.