ABSTRACT
The UK energy system is currently facing a period of major transition. The UK government has committed to an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 (relative to 1990) and the idea of aiming for a net-zero emission level is being debated. For example, the UK’s Department of Transport recently published a paper entitled The Road to Zero outlining possibilities of a zero-emission transport sector by 2050. Driven by multiple factors, this process requires achieving radical infrastructural innovations in a relatively short time. Traditionally based upon fossil fuels, UK electricity generation represents a key sector in this radical process. This chapter addresses two opposing decarbonisation pathways for the UK electricity system: (a) 40 GW of newly installed capacity from nuclear power; and (b) a nuclear phase-out with no new nuclear construction and more reliance on renewable energy. The chapter discusses the main findings obtained by applying qualitative research methods to these identified pathways. The qualitative research was coupled with a comprehensive literature review and stakeholder engagement activities. Initially, the literature review served to identify the multiplicity of uncertainties and risks affecting the two pathways. Stakeholders’ engagement activities helped to narrow down the identified uncertainties and risks, as well as framing discrimination between implementation and consequential risks. Findings show how the two pathways share multiple sources of uncertainties and risks. Yet, while the new nuclear pathway appears to be the object of more intense degrees of risk, several elements in the UK political and nuclear system make an early nuclear phase-out unlikely.
