ABSTRACT
The world has reached and transgressed the confines of many of the planetary capacities and boundaries, resulting in the realization that humanity may one day become limited by declining availability of food, energy and natural resources. Integrated and systemic approaches are necessary to recognise the mutual interdependencies in order to find appropriate policies. The WORLD7 model – which is used for the analysis in this article – has become a rather powerful tool for making integrated dynamic assessments for the sustainability of nations and the global civilization. The shortcomings or earlier world models have now been overcome. The purpose of the WORLD7 model is to assess the overall sustainability of the global civilization and use the model for policy development in single countries and regions; Germany, Sweden, Europe. In this article the WORLD7 Model is briefly described and some simulations are presented and discussed: the simulation for ‘Max 2°C global warming’ showed that the German ‘Energiewende’ policy is both possible and profitable in the long run. In order to do so, a ‘Ressourcewende’ would be necessary, reducing material resource losses and increase recycling. The runs suggest that a ‘Energiewende’ policy would be applicable on a global scale without any significant long-term negative effects to the global economy. The simulation predicts a positive effect on GDP development and global employment.
