ABSTRACT

Chapter 10 deals with futures analysis methods that enable the imagination and generation of alternative images of futures that are yet to exist. The chapter discusses scenarios and participatory scenario planning, futures wheels, the three horizons framework, design/experiential futures, horizon scanning, Delphi, trend impact analysis, emerging issues analysis, causal layered analysis, appreciative inquiry, gaming, future workshops, visioning, back-casting and road-mapping. It goes on to discuss the types of social-ecological systems (SES) problems and research questions commonly addressed by this set of methods, as well as their limitations, resource implications and new emerging research directions. The chapter also includes an in-depth case study showcasing the application of futures analysis, and suggested further readings on these methods.