ABSTRACT
Chapter 11 deals with scenario-development methods which, in global assessments, are used to focus scientific investigation, integrate different models and data, and improve decision-making. Local-scale scenarios often involve participatory processes that enhance stakeholder engagement and legitimacy in decision-making. The chapter discusses the double uncertainty matrix, Mānoa, scenario archetypes, La Prospective and causal layered analysis. It goes on to discuss the types of social-ecological systems (SES) problems and research questions commonly addressed by this set of methods, as well as their limitations, resource implications and new emerging research directions. The chapter also includes an in-depth case study showcasing the application of scenario-development methods and suggested further readings.
