ABSTRACT
In evaluating climate change mitigation interventions, many questions revolve around the impacts on the emissions themselves (e.g. Did the intervention actually produce emission reductions? Who can claim credit for the reductions?), even though the interventions themselves are often systematic, and the impact of specific intervention aspects on greenhouse gas emissions is hard to identify and attribute. Assessing various aspects’ relative contributions requires a clear understanding of the reasons why (and in what context) more sustainable technologies are used and what hampered the use of the technologies prior to the intervention. This chapter develops a programme theory for climate mitigation interventions that does not rely on outcome-based positive contributions to poorly tangible intermediate project objectives, but on an assessment of the situation in which a market for sustainable energy products or services does not exist. By representing a full programme theory for market development, the ‘Theory of No Change’ is able to assess whether or not an intervention contributed to a more favourable framework for the market for a sustainable energy technology. It can be transferred with small modifications to other types of behaviour or systems change. The framework is able to integrate the context of a project into the assessment and can help optimize the match between interventions, barriers and change (or the lack thereof).
