ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the complex “package” negotiations process between Afghanistan and Iran, in which the issue of shared waters is prominently featured. The negotiations process, which started in 2016 and lasted until the collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021, illustrates the complexity and intricacy of interstate negotiations over shared waters within evolving geopolitical dynamics. This negotiation period was characterized by many developments, including the construction of dams and political and security transition amid a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, a new government and easing of international sanctions against Iran, and the emergence of new regional dynamics surrounding the peace talks between the United States and the Taliban that culminated in the signing of an agreement in Doha, Qatar, in 2020. Although, in the end, both Afghanistan and Iran failed to reach a final agreement, this case study provides insights and valuable lessons learned concerning the complexity of shared waters and its broader geopolitical dynamics that shaped the water diplomacy process and affected its end results. The chapter concludes that while linking various issues and a benefit-sharing approach could facilitate negotiations over often difficult transboundary waters and provide incentives for collaboration, such linkages could also risk further complicating the process by entangling it into other convoluted realms such as security and economic cooperation. Additionally, while changes in the broader geopolitical context and external factors may help to facilitate water negotiations, the success of such processes could also be dependent upon or vulnerable to the evolution of such externalities. Therefore, the nature of issue linkages, the timing and design of the process, and external factors have a defining impact on the success or failure of a water diplomacy process.
