ABSTRACT
This chapter presents four scenarios which explore the context for international cooperation in the Arctic up to 2035: Klondike Arctic, Tech Arctic, Chinese Arctic, and EU Arctic.
Klondike Arctic – this is a high-powered global race for resources in the Arctic. In 2035, nation-states and global corporations both compete and cooperate as they extract hydrocarbons, biomass, and other resources on a massive scale.
Tech Arctic – the Arctic has turned its back on traditional resource exploitation and become a test bed for new green solutions and the scene of new technology-driven rivalry. In 2035, the main actors in the Arctic are tech companies, newly set-up national Arctic ministries, the EU, and indigenous groups.
Chinese Arctic – China has become the dominant force in the Arctic, using cooperation with Russia to expand its influence. In 2035, China has wide access to Arctic infrastructure and resources, and is also eager to project itself as the chief global architect of “Net Zero”.
EU Arctic – the EU has taken the lead in turning the Arctic into a “Northern Sanctuary” where the extraction of oil, gas, minerals, and other important resources is expressly forbidden. In 2035, the Arctic has become a global beacon of hope and at the same time a source of great frustration for many of the actors located there.
