ABSTRACT
This chapter is concerned primarily with ‘the cost estimation paradox’ – that is, the focus on the final cost estimate (the budget), at the expense of early-cost estimates. The basis for the authorisation of funding public projects and programs is a business case that demonstrates the benefits and disbenefits of the investment relative to costs, using ‘social cost-benefit analysis’ techniques – the appraisal of ‘public value’, as it is also known. Estimating and forecasting are important underpinning principles in the practices used by government to make informed decisions on major projects and programs. There are few consistent approaches to data capture, risk or project management in the work of government project delivery in the UK. The chapter has explored the cost estimating paradox from the perspective of major project delivery in the UK through a series of interrelated problems illustrated by case studies drawn from the UK Government’s Major Projects Portfolio.
