ABSTRACT
Living in the modern age means standing in relation to the future in a particular way, in a way that sees the future as unfolding according to a set of risks: as hazards and probabilities that are epistemically available for assessment through modeling and projection. But this risk-oriented way of envisioning the future is at once enabling and limiting. It is enabling inasmuch as it empowers us to anticipate the future and prevent bad outcomes; but it is limiting in that it depends on an artificial notion of control and thereby undermines practical deliberation. Recent observations from social choice and game theory – namely, that many outcomes are not merely uncertain, but instead indeterminate – complicate the epistemic and metaphysical picture that informs these risk-oriented views. The future itself is heavily dependent upon actions taken by actors in the present. Though policy-makers and ethicists often frame possible futures in terms of decision trees with outputs and probabilities, this is a poor framing. It offers the illusion of control in the face of indeterminate systems. Moreover, the usual framing of possible futures resulting from individual versus collective choices misconstrues the social realities that condition not only our deliberation but also the range of future possibilities for addressing various challenges. This chapter proposes tackling the distorting effects of this approach to risk by introducing a framework that both better reflects our social realities and considers a wider range of reasons that inform practical decisions.
