ABSTRACT
This chapter makes a threefold contribution to the debate on a possible AI arms race. First, it argues that the risk of an AI arms race is not simply a matter of an undesirable framing by political leaders and media outlets. Rather, the chapter shows that the AI arms race is closely linked to the military vision of technological superiority, which has dominated US military discourse since the Second Offset Strategy of the 1970s. Second, the chapter argues that the arms race that needs more attention does not relate simply to the general competition among great powers in the field AI, but relates also to the specific arms race between offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, which is currently being accelerated by AI. Taking stock of recent developments, it demonstrates how the current attempts to improve cyber offense and cyber defence with AI hold both great potential and great risk to the ability for militaries to dominate the information space. Building on this finding, the chapter takes lesson from discussions on how militaries balance offense and defence in cyberspace, and argues, third, that if this balancing act is repeated in relation to the AI, then AI-enhanced cyber offensive capabilities are likely to dominate, which will have a negative impact on the likelihood of a fully integrated, networked battlefield ever becoming reality.
