ABSTRACT
This chapter provides a historical survey of principal gray zone incidents in the South China, East China, and Yellow Seas, followed by key present and likely future dynamics for the Yellow Sea. Gray zone operations date back to at least the Cold War era. In 1974, when China and Vietnam were vying for control of the Paracel Islands, Beijing employed a proto-gray zone strategy, in which Maritime Militia “fishing boats” were mobilized to frustrate attribution and fuel ambiguity while fulfilling meaningful operational roles. People’s Republic of China (PRC) success in seizing the islands convinced its leadership that this strategy worked and could be usefully employed in the future as well; they invested accordingly. Today’s gray zone operations in the South China Sea should be understood against this historical backdrop. Currently, there are indications of potential gray zone activities in the Yellow Sea, reflecting both China’s propensity to operate as elusively as possible and its willingness to resort to ambiguous and incremental approaches to advance its control over this maritime space.
