ABSTRACT
In the autumn of 2016, the Centre Party, which had been excluded from all the coalitions since 2007, became an acceptable partner in government formation. This ended the coalition dominance of the Reform Party, which lasted for 17 years. The earthquake-like shift not only made the government formation logic more open-ended but also contributed to the instability of the subsequent coalitions. Curiously, the rise of the populist radical right has not helped to reinstate the former exclusionary logic in coalition formation. Whereas the global financial crisis (2008–2011) strengthened the executive and helped consolidate the party system, the migration and Covid-19 crises have opened the opportunity structures for the rise of the right-wing populists. However, the rise of populism has not led to democratic backsliding in Estonia. Overall, during 2008–2021, Estonia shifted from having clear traits of the strong prime minister model towards the coalition compromise mode while incorporating, also some elements of ministerial government.
