ABSTRACT
On nuclear weapons, Germany is both dependent and conservative. In essence, Germany remains bound by three principles: U.S. extended nuclear deterrence, membership and participation in the nuclear-armed NATO alliance, and the pursuit of reducing nuclear arms globally through multilateral arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation institutions. Resolving conflicts of interest between these three principles, German leaders’ follow a nuclear order of preference which privileges the alliance with America and NATO solidarity over its basic orientation as a “civilian power” that seeks arms reductions. In dealing with external sources of change or seeking to shift the parameters of dependence itself, Germany pursues long-tested incremental tactics that avoid radical and unilateral choices, aim to preserve existing institutions, and strive for supranational consensus. Thus far, the proclaimed Zeitenwende has not profoundly altered these policies. America's uncertain trajectory, however, may force German leaders into difficult and more radical choices. This concluding chapter summarizes the authors’ main arguments and observations, attempts to provide a prognosis for German nuclear policies, and identifies opportunities for further research on Germany.
