ABSTRACT
Standard economic models of marriage and fertility assume that people can make correct expectations about the often decades-long effects of their demographic choices. In reality, this is not the case. Demographic decisions are made in situations of considerable uncertainty, which can increase well beyond normal levels in times of crisis. To elaborate the influence of uncertainty on demographic decisions regarding fertility, marriage, and divorce, three different case studies will be explored in this chapter. First, the example of German reunification will be used to examine what happens when a fundamental transformation of an economic and social system abruptly makes people’s previous life experiences an unreliable guide to the future. The second case study will turn to the question of whether the post-Second World War US-American baby boom can be explained by the reduced uncertainty that characterized the Golden Age of economic growth. Finally, going back even further in time, the third case study will ask whether the introduction of social insurance systems contributed to the fertility transition that took place in the later nineteenth century in Germany.
