ABSTRACT
The rural economy of Myanmar, as in many late-developing economies, is agriculture based. For farmers, agriculture is often a battle fought on three fronts – unpredictable weather, volatile markets, and fickle government policies. During the half-century of socialist/military rule following independence, Myanmar’s agriculture and rural sector was held back by high land inequality and landlessness, poor infrastructure, low productivity, and extractive policies. In response, migration out of rural areas became an increasingly popular livelihood strategy. After 2011, both the USDP and the NLD governments sought to improve the welfare of farmers and rural communities. Widespread availability of mobile phones transformed farmer access to information, farm credit at affordable interest rates expanded, and the rapid growth of farm machinery service providers reduced drudgery and helped to mitigate weather risks. Farmers, and the food system more broadly, proved resilient to the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic as the NLD government adapted quickly to support the sector financially. But a year later the military coup turned transient economic shocks into permanent ones. Soaring global fertilizer and fuel prices, amplified by rapid depreciation of the Myanmar currency, drastically eroded farm profitability within a year of the coup. Rural poverty and food insecurity have doubled, wiping away a decade of hard-won gains.
