ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses human sources of uncertainty in the regulation of autonomous weapons systems (AWS). Even after two decades of high-level talks and active advocacy work by pro-ban groups, there is still no agreement on weapons prohibitions or regulations. Uncertainty is a useful analytical concept to unpack the current stalemate in the Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (GGE on LAWS). Unlike most previous humanitarian disarmament campaigns, there seems to be uncertainty about both the precise nature and degree of threat posed by AWS. This presents a genuine challenge for those interested in building momentum towards preventive arms control. While pro-ban activists have found ways to tame epistemic and ontological uncertainty and create a demand for anticipatory norms, they currently face an uphill struggle. The chapter shows how tech-pioneering states have been able to magnify uncertainty to slow down the pace of discussions in the GGE on LAWS and prevent controversial issues from entering the group's reports. Thus, uncertainty is simultaneously a limit to and an object of governance that has been strategically enacted to undermine the creation of anticipatory norms.
