ABSTRACT
In this chapter, I take a central question of this volume – why didn't they see it coming? – and apply it to the case of unconstitutional regime change. I ask why policymakers are often so unprepared for these critical moments and how this might affect responses to unconstitutional regime change. I argue that analyzing diplomats' responses to these events helps us better understand the role of uncertainty in global politics in two important ways. First, it highlights that international actors can (and should) prepare for uncertainty. Like natural disasters, unconstitutional regime change is a clear case of ontological extreme uncertainty, but this does not mean that it is completely unpredictable. Second, the chapter suggests that in order to understand how uncertainty is managed (or unmanaged) in global politics, we need to open the black box of the state, in this case by considering the role and positionality of diplomats on the ground. Although they are on the front lines of managing uncertainty, key features of diplomats' practice may undermine their ability to respond to extreme uncertainty.
