ABSTRACT
In 2019 Guinea-Bissau held three rounds of voting for legislative and presidential elections. Political support from Muslims and members of the Fula ethnic group was considered a factor in the rapid growth of the Movement for Democratic Alternation, Group of 15 (MADEM G15), and its presidential candidate, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, in the elections. However, there has been no systematic study on the impact of coreligious and coethnic ties between parties/candidates and voters on the election results in Guinea-Bissau. Using quantitative data on voter registration and election results, this chapter tests the hypotheses that there was religious and ethnic voting in the elections, especially focusing on the impact of the Muslim and Fula populations on vote shares for MADEM G15 and Embaló, at the electoral-district level. Regression analysis indicates that MADEM G15 and/or Embaló were more likely to receive votes in areas where more Muslims and Fula people resided.
