ABSTRACT
This chapter develops a new framework for understanding Hirschmanesque effects – how economic interdependence translates into political influence through domestic intermediaries. I propose three distinct types of Hirschmanesque effects (soft lobbying, hard lobbying, and policy reversal), each with specific scope conditions. Analyzing Koizumi-era Japan–China relations, especially the Yasukuni Shrine controversy, I show that economic interdependence alone is insufficient to mobilize powerful lobbying. Despite deepening economic ties, Japanese business groups mainly engaged in soft lobbying, perceiving minimal vulnerability to trade disruption and lacking unified mobilization. This chapter refines theories of economic statecraft by detailing contingent pathways through which economic ties may or may not shape foreign policy, enhancing understanding of how rising powers transform economic relations into political leverage.
