ABSTRACT
The current study considers a mixed environmental/historical statistical model to establish a probability map for settlement locations in Crete’s Malia-Lasithi region during the Minoan Protopalatial period. The work represents the continuation of previous research that focused on site location choices during the Protopalatial and whereby a comparison was made between the performances of a purely environmental over a mixed environmental/historical model. Statistical modelling consisted of fitting a logistic regression model using a Deletion/Substitution/Addition (DSA) algorithm for model selection. Model uncertainty was assessed through calculation of confidence intervals at the 95% confidence level and the results are presented as probability maps that show upper and lower interval endpoints for the study area. Assessment of the model’s predictive performance, on both the study area and on an independent validation area, indicates that the model is able to capture some underlying structure that determines preferences for site locations. Moreover there is a general agreement between the generated settlement probability map and many of the existing published survey results. The results obtained demonstrate the usefulness of the modeling approach and we expect that the existing model can be further improved in the future by incorporating more survey data.
