The ex post rule of law conditionality and its implications for EU enlargement

This chapter discusses the evolution and limitations of the rule of law conditionality in the European Union (EU), with a focus on enlargement and the Western Balkans. It highlights the persistent asymmetry between powerful ex ante mechanisms, which drive reforms before accession and weaker ex post tools, which have proven inadequate in preventing backsliding in Member States, such as Hungary and Poland. The chapter reviews transitional safeguards, political sanctions under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), and the financial conditionality regulation, identifying both their potential and their shortcomings. It argues that sustainable enlargement requires bridging the divide between pre- and post-accession conditionality by creating a continuous, enforceable governance framework. Such a model would link accession reforms to permanent accountability, ensuring that the rule of law functions not only as a condition of entry but as a resilient foundation of EU membership.