ABSTRACT
The rapid increase in Indian immigration to the United States of America (USA) since 2000 has also been accompanied by a sharp increase in the unauthorized Indian immigrant population, largely driven by those who entered the country legally but became unauthorized after their visas expired. However, there was an unprecedented surge in apprehensions of Indian nationals at the border – 40 times in just four years – from around 1,000 in fiscal year (FY) 2020 to a peak of 43,000 in 2023, followed by a concomitant rise in asylum requests, although these trends seem more driven by a pursuit of better economic opportunities. Nonetheless, official US government estimates do not show a rise in the overall population of unauthorized Indian immigrants, who make up only a small share of the overall unauthorized migrant population in the country (roughly 2 percent in 2022). Other data, such as removals of Indian nationals or visa overstay rates among Indian visa holders, confirm this finding. Following the reelection of Donald Trump, unauthorized migration to the USA is likely to drop sharply, and from India even more so.
